綠光的 David Einhorn Q3 股東信出來示警說泡泡要爆了,以下是他的看法:
• an IPO mania;
IPO 狂潮
-我有同樣的擔憂
• extraordinary valuations and new metrics for valuation;
出現新的估值指標和非尋常的估值。
-這邊應該是市場共識,但估值高也是有 QE 和降息的背景支撐
• a huge market concentration in a single sector and a few stocks;
巨大的交易聚焦於單一族群和少數個股
-我想她是在說科技股
• a second tier of stocks that most people haven’t heard of at S&P 500-type market capitalizations;
沒人聽過的二線仔們擠身 S&P 500 等級的市值
-不確定他指誰,這部分每個人心裡都會有對應的答案
• the more fanciful and distant the narrative, it seems the better the stock performs;
新潮和距離感越明顯的個股表現都比較好
-在講本夢比的類股吧,我認同若沒有明確的產品,估值卻很高那就有問題,這邊看個人標準落在 1-10B
• outperformance of companies suspected of fraud based on the consensus belief that there is no enforcement risk, without which crime pays;
表現優異的公司具有詐欺的嫌疑,卻不用付出代價
-這是在說 NKLA?
• outsized reaction to economically irrelevant stock splits;
與基本面無關的股票分割卻有過大的反應
-這邊應該在講 AAPL 和 TSLA 拆股後劇烈震盪
• increased participation of retail investors, who appear focused on the bestperforming names;
散戶數量增加,且都聚焦在漲勢很好的個股
-這很多人都在聊
• incredible trading volumes in speculative instruments like weekly call options and worthless common stock; and a parabolic ascent toward a top.
投機的交易量增加,像是選擇權和一些不值錢的普通股拋物線往頂部衝
-ㄟ...軟銀 4ni?
Einhorn 也分享了一段很爆笑的故事:We recently received a job
application with the email subject, “I am young, but good at investments” from a 13-year old who purports to have quadrupled his money since February.
我們最近收到了一封求職信,主旨為:我年輕但很會投資。這封信來自一位 13 歲小孩自稱從 2 月以來資產已經翻了 4 倍。
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現在好像每天都有人會出來喊空,但股災後那批所謂的「大媽、散戶」至今隨便賣,要輾過對沖基金平均績效是滿容易的,就看要不要見好就收囉。
註:David Einhorn 是有名的特斯拉空頭,馬斯克曾經氣到寄一箱短褲過去挑釁。
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SSIL: Add to Watchlist; Add to Portfolio 10 2 11‑11‑2021 ... <看更多>
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SYMBOL COMPANY RATIO PAYABLE ON EX‑DATE ANNOUNCED
FGBI First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc 10.000% 12/17/2021 12/14/2021 11/15/2021
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